Science Fiction, Fact & Forecast

In this seminar, we will look at how possible and impossible futures are envisioned by Science Fiction on the one hand, and futurology on the other hand. We will investigate into the entwined history of these two fields and think about their respective methodologies and styles, their similarities and differences. By reading SF theory and literature as well as texts by futurists, we will discuss what role probability, factuality and science play in these genres. We will ask what kind of knowledge these texts want to gain and how. Overall, we will try to carve out the underlying understanding of ‘the future’ in these different approaches and thereby critically discuss the various ideas and methods of forecasting.

This seminar will be held in a workshop format. Requirements to finish the course: Presence, active participation and a short written essay.

The first sessions will provide an introduction into the matter, we will read and discuss Science Fiction theory and literature in class. For the second part of the seminar, students will read texts of SF Studies and Futurology and prepare them in order to be discussed in class together.

Readings:

SF theory

• Ursula K. Le Guin: Foreword to “The Left Hand of Darkness”
• Darko Suvin: Metamorphoses of Science Fiction (1977)
• Robert Scholes: Structural Fabulation (1975)
• Sherryl Vint: Science Fiction (2021)
• Robert Scholes & Eric S. Rabkin: Science Fiction. History, Science, Vision. (1977)
• Margaret Atwood: In Other Worlds. SF and the Human Imagination (2011)
• Ursula K. Le Guin: Dreams Must Explain Themselves (2018)
• Jeff Vandermeer: Wonderbook. The illustrated Guide to creating Imaginative Fiction (2013)

Futurology

• Cynthia Selin: “Professional Dreamers” (2015)
• Cynthia Selin & Rafael Ramírez: “Plausibility and probability in scenario planning” (2014)
• Herman Kahn: Thinking about the Unthinkable (1962)
• Herman Kahn: On Thermonuclear War (1960)
• Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele: The Plausibility of Future Scenarios (2020)
• Rebecca Wilbanks „Incantatory Fictions and Golden Age Nostalgia: Futurist Practices in Contemporary Science Fiction“ (2020)